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Abstract Climate change is causing shifts in the geographic distributions of coastal fish species toward higher latitudes. However, local fish communities found in higher latitudes today are not simply those found in lower latitudes in the past because the sensitivity of species to various environmental conditions is different. Responses of fish to environmental conditions differ depending on their life‐history traits such as the maximum population growth rate, age of maturity, and generation time because these traits are constrained by environmental conditions. Here, we investigate associations among temporal patterns in presence–absence (incidence) data, life‐history traits of species, and environmental conditions to elucidate the potential mechanisms behind the effects of climate change on coastal fish communities. In this study, fish monitoring data collected semi‐monthly between 1982 and 2019 from eight major bays in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico were analyzed with generalized additive models. Smooth patterns over seasons and years in the incidence data of 77 species were estimated, and the data were associated with environmental variables. Further, these temporal patterns were associated with the life‐history traits of species. The results show that species that are more common in the summer months (non‐winter spawners) tend to exhibit an increasing trend and that species common during the spring (winter spawners) tend to exhibit a decreasing trend, suggesting the importance of summer conditions in driving tropicalization. Salinity had significant effects on species in general, and longer‐lived species tended to be affected by temperature. These results suggest seasonal differences in the effects of environmental conditions and variation in sensitivity to environmental conditions among different life‐history strategies. These findings represent major steps toward understanding the mechanisms behind the tropicalization of estuarine communities. 

Abstract Climate change impacts physical and chemical properties of the oceans, and these changes affect the ecology of marine organisms. One important ecological consequence of climate change is the distribution shift of marine species toward higher latitudes. Here, the prevalence of nearly 150 species of fish and invertebrates were investigated to find changes in their distributions over 35 years along a subtropical coast within the Gulf of Mexico. Our results show that 90 species increased their occupancy probability, while 33 decreased (remaining species neither increase or decrease), and the ranges of many species expanded. Using rarefaction analysis, which allows for the estimation of species diversity, we show that species diversity has increased across the coast of Texas. Climate-mediated environmental variables are related to the changes in the occupancy probability, suggesting the expansion of tropical species into the region is increasing diversity.